Two Sudans, One Pessimistic Future

 

Two Sudans, for Better or Worse?

On Thursday evening, the Humanitarian Working Group at Columbia University's SIPA hosted a panel discussion on the future of Sudan and South Sudan, entitled: "Two Sudans, For Better or Worse?" The mini-conference brought together six speakers to discuss what we can expect in the near future for the region.The speakers represented activists, scholars, and a former Sudanese government official. Despite their different occupations and angles of perception of the crises in Sudan, all shared a pessimistic view of the region's future.
The talk was moderated by Dirk Salomons, director of SIPA's Program for Humanitarian Affairs and a long-time professional in post-conflict areas. He split the speakers into two panels of three, giving each a chance to speak on his or her own area of interest. The first panel consisted of Luka Biong Deng, Tanya L. Domi, and Huda Shafiq Ali.

Luka Biong Deng: the dangers of Political Islam in Sudan

Mr. Deng, a former Minister of Cabinet Affairs for Sudan and a Minister of Presidential Affairs for Southern Sudan and now Executive Director of KUSH Inc., led off the night by issuing a warning: both Sudans are in critical danger unless action is taken immediately. Mr. Deng worked as part of the Sudanese government only to resign in May 2011 invasion of the Abyei area. Having witnessed the extremes of Sudan's government, Mr. Deng felt the international community needs to strengthen its sanctions and pressure on Sudan, while also increasing support to South Sudan. He emphasized the moral imperative to bring the indicted criminals in Sudan (especially President Omar al-Bashir) to justice before the ICC. Mr. Deng closed by focusing on the dangers of Political Islam in Sudan, noting that while the religion itself is not dangerous, "the practice of (Political) Islam is so inconsistent with the actual teaching" that it the number one threat to the two Sudans right now

Tanya Domi: Genocide must be stopped

The panel then moved on to Tanya Domi, a former US Amry soldier and officer who now chairs the board for Our Humanity in the Balance. She was direct in her assertions that advocacy alone will not stop genocide. She described herself as becoming very radicalized "by witnessing genocide over, and over, and over..." In order to stop genocide in Sudan, Ms. Domi described the need for civilians to go to the disputed areas and record the violence that is occurring. She said that "petitions don't work any more" and witnesses were needed to inform the international community.

Huda Shafiq Ali: Sudan needs to engage women at all levels

This need for international activists prepared the way for the Sudanese gender activist, Huda Shafiq Ali, the vice president of Gesr Center for Development. She spoke of the need to involve women in every level of government and reform. She reminded us, "Women are always there in the peace process, but are no where when there is 'peace.'" Despite the challenges facing women and youth in Sudan, she was probably the most optimistic, perhaps because of her organization's successes in promoting human rights and civic education among young Sudanese.

Kenny Gluck: Mediation will further entrench al-Bashir

The second panel of three included Kenny Gluck, Ahmed Adam Hussein, and John Prendergast. Mr. Gluck, former Chief of Staff for the AU-UN Mediation Support Team as well as the former Director of Operations at Medecins Sans Frontiers, was realistic (and pessimistic) about the chances of peace and justice in Sudan. He pointed out that currently the international community is focused on mediation, which always looks for "mutually beneficial solutions." This may not sound bad, but it means that any solution reached by mediation would further entrench the ruling Sudanese party because they would only agree to something that was at least as beneficial to them as it was to the opposition. Also, it is difficult to negotiate any peace when all interested parties have allied rebel groups to keep happy. The complex web of militias keep changing, with many militias fighting at different times for more than one side. Furthermore, the different forms of incentives for rebel groups to support a particular side means there is little cohesion and makes negotiation even more difficult, as any concessions by one side can lead to dangerous fragmentation. Rebel groups often have an incentive to keep fighting beyond a negotiated peace.

Ahmed Adam Hussein: al-Bashir must go

Mr. Gluck's pessimism was echoed by Sudanese/Darfurian activist Ahmed Adam Hussein. Mr. Hussein said bluntly that "the situation on the ground in Darfur is NOT getting better, rather it is catastrophic!" Sudan and South Sudan has seen too much violence under too many pretenses, with massacres in South Sudan due to religion and massacres in Darfur due to race and ethnicity. Mr. Hussein continued that the problem with having peace keepers in Sudan is that there is no peace to keep! He closed with an impassioned plea for Sudan's future, saying, "If Bashir remains in power, Sudan will never know peace! It is time for him to go!"

John Prendergast: Still hop

Finally, we arrived at the last speaker, who may be the best known to an international audience: John Prendergast. You may know him from his books, his advocacy with the Enough Project, or the Satellite Sentinel Project to use satellite imagery to track violence in Sudan (as a nascent crisis mapper myself, I find that last project particularly interesting). He is often seen alongside another famous advocate for the region, George Clooney (in fact you can read their Time Magazine article on Famine as a weapon of war here). This particular evening, Dr. Prendergast tried to spin much of the pessimism of the other speakers into some semblance of hope. While noting his own reservations, he emphasized that within danger there is opportunity. In fact, in the context of Sudan, there are ten opportunities facing the world. These opportunities were collated shortly before the panel, so some need refinement or are repetitive. Nevertheless, here are John Prendergast's 10 opportunities in Sudan (paraphrased as best as I could!) :

-The ICC's recent arrest warrant for Sudan's Defense Minister Abdelrahim Mohamed Hussein means that, along with President Omar al-Bashir, Sudan's civilian leadership is finally being held accountable for its crimes in Darfur and other parts of Sudan.

-China, long Sudan's biggest defender, now has to change its policy because much of China's largest interest in the region (oil) now resides in South Sudan. This means China will have to "play both sides of the fence" and can no longer blindly support Sudan.

-The regional context of the Arab Spring has to frighten al-Bashir. Sudan's neighbors have shown what happens to authoritarian rulers oppressing their own people.

-The formation of the opposition coalition, Sudan Revolutionary Front, may finally bring some semblance of coherence to and unity to the opponents of al-Bashir.

-For years, Sudan used the southern part of the country as a crutch for avoiding complaints of other parts of the country. Sudan had to deal with the issues in the south before it could turn attention to other problems. Now that South Sudan is its own country, Sudan no longer has this crutch and will have to face up to the rest of the country's problems and complaints.

-The United States government increasingly recognizes that the central problem in Sudan is the abuse of power at the country's core.

-Now is a true "Responsibility to Protect (R2P) Moment." If the international community really believes in this new responsibility (exhibited in the creation of South Sudan, the support for Libyan rebels, and elsewhere this past year), it will have to respond to the crises in Sudan.

-The demise of the Darfur Peace Process means the international community can abandon (and should abandon) similar piece-meal deals. Now is the time to focus on an over-arching treaty that addresses the central issues at the heart of Sudan's humanitarian crises: the central government.

-Evidence of the atrocities in Sudan continue to accumulate, thanks to innovative new technologies (digital cameras, cell phones, satellite imagery, etc.)

-If famine does occur in parts of Sudan (Nuba Mountains and Blue Nile areas), the visuals reported by the media will be horrific and induce the international community to act.

What to make of all of this? The rockstar of the group is definitely Prendergast, who has a lot of experience in encouraging the international community to act. His potential opportunities, however, were not very convincing. For instance, I think the ICC's warrants will just increase the ruling party's desire to maintain power, knowing the doom that awaits them once they step down. That is not to say they should not be held accountable for crimes against humanity, just that it is a disincentive to relinquish power. Also, images of starving children may induce the international community to act, but will these images induce it to address the core problems? If the Horn of Africa is any indication, then No.
I was impressed by Ahmed Adam Hussein, an impassioned and eloquent advocate for his country and region. But his strong words will not be enough to change the future of Sudan, nor will the monitoring of Prendergast's satellite imagery or records of Domi's witnesses. The future appears gloomy for Sudan and South Sudan, unless the international community heeds the advice of these panel members and acts in decisive fashion.