Political Situation -
Ah, our old friend Andry! He has managed to largely weather the storm of donor aid and foreign investment withdrawal, and is now poised atop a new "coalition" government. There remain a few issues to be hammered out, but things look good for him. Let's take a look at the latest, via Reuters' Q+A on the Crisis:
* President Andry Rajoelina and the main opposition leaders have agreed in principle on three people to head a consensus government on the Indian Ocean island, breaking the political gridlock that has plagued Madagascar this year.This new government was agreed to, in principle, by the four parties' negotiators (Andry, Zafy, Ratsiraka and Ravalomanana). It has yet to be signed; as a matter of fact, the four leaders will be traveling to Geneva this weekend to hammer our the details and sign an agreement. Of course, this did not happen without a few road bumps. The "politically neutral" Mangalaza is replacing Andry's hardline supporter as Prime Minister, Monja Roindefo. Roindefo refuses to give up his post (despite being fired by Andry) and still says he is "the legal Prime Minister of Madagascar" (VOA Story here). Local media even fears armed confrontation over the issue (unlikely). Most likely, if the agreement is signed and all posts confirmed at the upcoming meeting in Geneva, Roindefo will have no real argument to make. His supporters have sided with Andry. But should it surprise Andry, who had no legal claim to power and only a handful of supporters, that the man promoted to be his Prime Minister will not listen to legal arguments or cower because of a lack of supporters?
* A power-sharing deal struck by the leaders in Maputo in August floundered due to political ambition, private interests and debts of loyalty. Rajoelina unilaterally formed a government last month, deepening his diplomatic isolation.
* Under the new deal, Rajoelina, a 35-year-old former DJ with limited political experience, remains president. Emmanuel Rakotovahiny, head of former President Albert Zafy's movement, will be vice-president. Eugene Mangalaza, a relative unknown, will occupy the hotly-contested prime minister's office.
* Mangalaza, put forward by exiled former President Didier Ratsiraka, is considered politically neutral. Backers of the social anthropology and philosophy professor say that suits Madagascar's needs. Critics say he will be easily manipulated.
The larger, and more worrisome, complaint about the agreement comes from Marc Ravalomanana. Although his supporters agreed to the distribution of positions and retention of Andry as President, Marc says he will not agree to Andry as president. Or, if he approves, he wants assurances that Andry cannot run in the upcoming election (probably to happen in the next 12 months, and to be funded by the US). He feels let down by the mediators, and thinks Andry's claim to power is being legitimized. It seems this stance is distancing Marc from most of the politicians and the international community, who really just want an end to this whole situation. I would suspect he will sign on to the agreement this weekend, after making his objections known, but then Marc has had trouble reading the political winds before...
Madagascar- the Environment and the People -
It seems one of the major victims of this whole situation is the environment. The forests and species that make Madagascar so unique, long under threat from deforestation, are even more in danger now. Illegal harvesting by armed gangs has become so rampant that "A group of international environmental organizations and universities have called for a boycott of precious wood from Madagascar, saying criminal gangs have been using months of political turmoil to plunder protected forests." (Article) Perhaps more distressing, it seems that Andry Rajoelina's regime is profiting from the harvesting. Strapped for cash with the suspension of international aid following his coup d'etat, Andry's government issued a decree allowing the felling of precious hardwoods: "The decree 'legalizes the sale of illegally cut and collected wood onto the market and constitutes a legal incentive for further corruption in the forestry sector.'" Should the new agreement by the four political parties bring hope to the precarious situation?
Environmental groups hoped that in time the return of members of the ousted regime, who acted to preserve Madagascar’s forests, would see prospects for Madagascar’s unique biodiversity improve.(NYT: Madagascar's Wood Exports Stir Debate)“We see no real reason for immediate optimism,” Martina Lippuner, a spokeswoman for WWF in Madagascar, wrote in an e-mail message.
“But we remain hopeful,” she added, “that the changes, when they come, may be beneficial to the environment.”
Not very encouraging. But how much are the people being affected, and will Andry come out the big winner without much collateral damage? I think the best recap on the situation and its actual effects comes from the Economist:
It is debatable whether the majority of Madagascar’s 20m people, most of them very poor, much care who runs the show as long as they have enough to eat and can live in peace. Foreign investors did not flee after the coup, as Mr Ravalomanana’s backers predicted. Tourism, a big earner, has shrunk, but as much due to world recession as to the island’s instability. International aid, expected to total about $700m this year, has fallen by nearly half.
Despite the initial outrage of the AU, SADC and other bodies, Mr Rajoelina looks as if he has got away with it. Madagascar is underdeveloped and poses no threat to world peace. Grand talk of sending in an AU force, such as one that ousted a coup-maker last year in the Comoro islands, faded fast. Besides, Madagascar has quite a big and well-trained army, a large chunk of which backed Mr Rajoelina. The increasingly authoritarian Mr Ravalomanana had become unpopular and the deal may let the islanders choose their leader freely in the not-too-distant future.
Until the next coup, that is.
