Mr. Rajaonarimampianina Goes to Washington

It has been 5 years since the World Bank, EU, United States, IMF, and other investors left Madagascar. They took jobs, economic treaties, and development money with them. Now, with an internationally-recognized president who is saying all the right things, the country is ready to reclaim those old partnerships.

Photo source: Website of Madagascar's President http://www.presidence.gov.mg/?p=808

Malagasy President Hery Rajaonarimampianina launched a charm offensive in Washington, New York, and Paris last week. Was it enough to convince international donors and investors to untie the purse strings and re-engage with Madagascar? Let's look back at the visit, from the views of both an optimist and a pessimist.

Glass Half Full

• Hery really is saying all the right things (you can listen to the English translation of his UN press conference here). "My priority is to restore the rule of law in Madagascar, which will serve underpin sustainable development." He speaks of political reconciliation and a focus on creating a strong investment climate. His visits included representatives of national donors, international funding organizations, and private sector representatives (namely Exxon).
• The UN, World Bank, and IMF seemed very receptive to the Malagasy President. The World Bank in particular may release $300 million in aid.
• Companies like Exxon, who had pre-Crisis exploratory deals in Madagascar, were top among Hery's list of meetings, lending hope that the country will uphold old partnerships (if not contracts?)

Glass Half Empty

• Hery did not meet with President Obama or President Hollande, which some outlets liken to being "snubbed." It is difficult for me to agree that this was any real snubbing - these things take time before a proper state visit can be arranged - but it does mean the world missed out on Hery ignoring a Hollande Handshake.
• No discussion of AGOA or other bilateral ties with the United States.
• Despite saying a lot of the right things, Hery does refuse to make a definitive comment about the future of exiled President Marc Ravalomanana
• Corruption? Some Malagasy people seemed to think the President's trips to France and the USA were paid by international companies... and there have been other questions about those pesky 350 SUVs. For the record, Hery denies all these charges.
• What role will transitional President Andry Rajoelina play in the new government? Stay tuned...

Next steps

• Choosing a Prime Minister - let's hope it is not Rajoelina. Many still hypothesize that this was Rajoelina's plan all along: "pull a Putin" by installing a puppet President and making himself the more-powerful Prime Minister. But Hery was an independent candidate when Rajoelina was still in the race, and I like to give him the benefit of the doubt. Let's hope Hery chooses someone who has stayed out of the Political Crisis as much as possible...
• International community: Open those purse-strings, turn on the faucet, call in that golden-egg-laying-goose... Re-invest in Madagascar, a country full of talented individuals and entrepreneurs.

Beatbox meets Cello: Friday Music Video

Kevin Olusola is pretty amazing. I am surprised I had not seen him until a commercial (gasp!) before a movie this week. Enjoy!

Pretty cool, huh? You can follow him here: @KOlusola


 You want some more? Ok... here is KO covering JT:

World turns its attention to Crimea; or, The non-coup coup that superseded all other international crises

Events in the Ukraine are moving quickly, so the scenario could be very different very soon. For now, Russia's moves in the Crimea have brought the two countries (and possibly allies) to the brink of war. The possibility of a Crimean War 2 (the long-awaited sequel to the original) is all the international relations experts are talking about. Here is an example of the coverage from the BBC. This situation has the potential to be significantly worse than Russia's last invasion of a sovereign nation (Georgia in 2008).

There are two related issues that are particularly interesting to me:

• First, that this situation began when Ukrainian protests (partially led by pro boxer Vitali Klitschko) led to a coup d'etat of the elected prime minister, but very few western observers decried it as a coup. 
• Second, that this crisis has taken all the Western attention away from every other international crisis, including Syria and Central African Republic. Or the fervor over Uganda's new laws. Everything has taken a back seat to what pundits have been dreaming about: a pseudo-Cold War crisis.

So, I just wanted to offer a few thoughts on these issues...

When a coup is not a coup...
It is continually frustrating that when a friendly-to-the-West leader is removed from power, it is branded as a coup, but when that leader is unfriendly-to-the-West, it is branded as some form of justice. In Ukraine, very few (English-language) observers are wringing their hands at Yanukovych's removal from power. Coup "wonk" Jay Ulfelder even called it a Just Coup (which led to an equally interesting introspection from the author regarding covering political science as it happens). This may seem overly pedantic to some, but ignoring a coup d'etat (or sanctifying it as a popular revolution) is a slippery slope. I am continually annoyed that a coup leader in Madagascar was able to rule for 4 years, not because I thought his predecessor was a saint but because the Malagasy people have (or had, at least) respect for the electoral process.

We as a global society need to think long and hard about how we react to removing rulers from power. There are plenty of reasons why we might support a coup d'etat in a place like Ukraine, but we need to admit to ourselves that we are doing exactly that. We should not veil ourselves in righteousness by redefining what is happening in real life.

Superseding other international crises
Sorry, Syria. Your incredible bloodshed lacks a directly-involved Great Power. France is involved in CAR, but that lacks the nostalgia of a Cold War standoff. Museveni and friends in Uganda are legislating and not invading. Nigeria and DRC are off the radar. Russia in the Crimea has taken the spotlight, and when Putin has the world's attention there is not time for anyone else.

If his actions in Ukraine are a feint, than Putin has drawn attention away from his ally al-Assad. If his intentions are more serious, than Putin has unintentionally distracted the world from places that already needed more international attention. I suppose this happens all the time, so I should not be surprised. But it is still frustrating...

Ethiopia was, and is, a fascinating place

When I traveled briefly in Ethiopia a few years ago, I was impressed by many things... but what impressed me the most was how much everyone knew about their country's impressive (and lengthy) history. Here is what I wrote upon my return:

The pride that the Ethiopian people have for their country is impressive. In Mekele, for example, I saw two working-class Ethiopians who had saved up money just to travel to the north from Addis and see the remains of palaces and bask in their inherited history.

This is probably not too surprising given the country's history and proud traditions, but it was pretty cool nevertheless. I was reminded of this when I read Richard Dowden's excellent article, "Ethiopia’s historic self-confidence writ large in the monastery at Debre Damo." (On the always-interesting African Arguments). Here is a bit:

Ethiopia is old. It was a powerful well-organised state when Britain was inhabited by warring tribes living in mud huts. It was Christian long before most of Europe. Going back further, the Steeles at Aksum are 300 BC. They make Stonehenge look crude

I encourage you to read the article... and maybe take an interest in modern Ethiopia as well.