I Can't Tell You What It Really Is, I Can Only Tell You What It Feels Like...

And right now? It kind of feels like deja vu.

On Wednesday afternoon, about 20 Malagasy military officers contacted international military to say they had overthrown the government and absolved all institutions, setting up a military ruling committee to broker an impartial transition and return to democratic practices. No one at that time in my town had heard anything of this, and as I later learned no one in the capital, Antananarivo, had heard about it either (despite the officers being located there and claiming to topple the political regime based there).

So what is this reminiscent of?

Is it May 20, 2010, when two factions of the armed forces clashed violently? (this led to the smaller rebellious faction fleeing, and after this one day of fighting no further events)

Is it March 17, 2009, when a small cabal of military officers toppled the ruling regime following months of political uncertainty? (this send then-President Marc Ravalomanana into exile, and the officers handed power to current-President Andry Rajoelina)

Is it November 18, 2006, when a military officer took control of the airport in the capital and claimed to have disbanded the government, setting up military rule? (This officer was subdued without major consequences and life continued as usual, more or less)

Is it 2002, where the military split and two capitals were set up under two Presidents, each claiming legitimacy while trying to isolate the other? (This was the most violent of recent crises, as bridges and communication links were cut to the capital)

It is still early to say for sure. I am, however, pretty certain that this situation is not similar to 2002. So far there has been no massive split in the military, and quite frankly my opinion is that the Malagasy are too tired of this crisis to rise up in arms against each other (This also rules out the event earlier this year). Indeed, outside of the capital, no one really cares about this latest stunt. Thus, it is looking similar to the 2006 coup claim, as the officers claimed to control the country on Wednesday but so far have been unable to move out of their barracks. They are, once again, isolated near the airport, and making claims far beyond what their actions have been able to substantiate (again, so far). The current situation is a direct descendant of the 2009 crisis, as the officers are fed-up with the transitional regime they installed (Rajoelina). Indeed, some of the officers were the very ones who led that (successful) changing-of-the-guard. Still, so far there is nothing to indicate this event is more than fiery rhetoric.

If a Coup Happens and No One Cares, Does It Make A Sound?

Here is what my day looked like when the coup d'etat "happened" - Wednesday was the referendum on the new constitution, so most work places and schools were closed for voting. The vote was a simple "Yes" of "No" on a constitution re-written to allow a younger president (age limit changed from 40 to 35), along with other less-noticeable (by me) changes. President Rajoelina, aged 36, pushed strongly for the "Yes" aspect, appearing at rallies with popular Malagasy musicians and promising public works projects (fixing RN44, an olympic swimming pool for Toliara, millions of Ariary for each fokontany, etc.)

Peace Corps had warned us about the election, and asked us to avoid major gatherings. As such, and since my Koloharena office was closed for the day for the voting, I set-up a Moringa planting project with a friend. This friend, M. Henry, runs a small community center. This center was recently started with funding raised by the previous two volunteers in this town, and they focus on providing nutritious meals, vocational training and education to at-risk youth. It is a small project with laudable goals and lots of potential. The kids come once-to-twice-a-week for meals and lessons. I visited last week, and decided to plant some Moringa trees on M. Henry's property, both as teaching examples for future lessons with the children and to provide another nutritious ingredient for meals (a fellow RPCV contacted me this week, asking, "What was that miracle plant that was all the rage when we were volunteers?" He was talking, of course, about Moringa!) Anyways, I spent the morning planting tree seeds and talking about Moringa. I then rewarded myself with a nice lunch at the best hotely in Madagascar (for ex-Amparafa-ites, Tsiky Tsaky and the henakisoa sy tsaramaso!) I made it home in the early afternoon, having successfully avoided anything to do with the referendum!

That afternoon, I went to the market and noticed the voting taking places. It was orderly and overall quite subdued. People went about their business calmly. One difference I did notice: no alcohol for sale. I was also informed that if any drunks were on the street, they would be arrested. Seems like a good way to avoid altercations! I then went back to the office to check emails and follow-up on our rice container departure. As I was getting ready to finish up there, I checked google news for any Madagascar updates. This is a regular habit, and I just type in "Rajoelina" to avoid any articles about Madagascar the movie(s). This works well, because any article about Madagascar the country invariably includes something like "Madagascar has been embroiled in a political crisis since the takeover by ex-radio DJ Andry Rajoelina." It was only at this time that I learned, along with the rest of the country, that there had been a "Coup."

What Happens Now?

As I mentioned, very little came of this coup claim. Rajoelina and his companions quickly claimed to have a firm hold on the situation. The rebels have been holed up in their barracks since then, apparently negotiating for a bloodless end to their attempt to take power. In the meantime, referendum results are being processed, and throughout the island life has continued quite normally. Peace Corps has been taking precautions with volunteers, asking us not to travel until the situation becomes clearer. They have also been providing us with regular updates and are checking in with all PCVs.

Throughout these events, crowds have gathered and been dispersed via tear gas, much as they have for the past few months. Each day, local and international media claim that "today events could unfold that will clarify the situation," and at the end of the day they say something like, "tomorrow could be the day to decide events." This is very similar to Indecision 2009, when consolidated PCVs, Peace Corps and the US Embassy were all unsure of what would happen the next day, and in the end usually nothing happened at all. Thus, I highly doubt anything of substance will occur, and see this as just another of the drawn-out standoffs that Madagascar has become famous for.

How Can I Keep Up-To-Date On the Situation?

Check Google News each day, typing in Rajoelina or try just "Madagascar," we're all over the web right now. I read somewhere that the only time an election in Africa makes headlines is when violence occurs, and the only time Madagascar makes headlines for non-cartoon reasons is when their is a coup d'etat. Seems pretty true. I have found Reuters articles written by Alain Iloniaina to be particularly detailed (Here is his latest). For local coverage, you can check some of the links on my right-hand column, though most of the sites are overloaded with traffic these days, and local commentators are just as confused as international ones.

On a lighter note, I thought this article detailing "Development Speak" was a great look at the crazy vocabulary of the international aid world. Peace to all, and remember, no matter what you see on the 'Net, we are in good hands here and safe in our villages!