Tuesday, July 10, 2012

Success! Calm and Orderly Election in Timor-Leste! ...now what?

Timorese returned to their hometowns across the country to vote in the parliamentary elections on Saturday. 65 seats, 20+ parties, countless political rallies, numerous news reports about stating that this was a huge test and IF it was peaceful MAYBE the UN would be able to remove its peacekeepers at the end of the year... The result was a peaceful, calm election by most accounts. The current Prime Minister's party won the most seats, but not enough for a clear majority, and will need to form a coalition (probably with their main rival Fretilin). You can read a proper news report of the election via the Guardian here (including a great opening photo!) Here is the EU's preliminary report on the election. Their report is congratulatory:

The EU EOM congratulates the citizens of Timor-Leste, the political parties, the electoral administration and the security forces for what has so far been a smooth and well-organised electoral process. The EU EOM  will  continue to observe the aggregation of results and to monitor any complaints that may arise. This statement is preliminary and the mission will not draw final conclusions until the results process is complete and certified.
So the election was a success... as far as the process, at least. But now what? It seems the UN peacekeeping force will be able to depart as scheduled at the end of 2012, but with much of the (very limited) retail and services economies dependent on these foreign workers, what will become of numerous small-business owners in Dili? Aid/development workers will remain, perhaps multiplying a fair amount, and a few tourists may trickle through, but it will be difficult to replace entire battalions of consumers. The oil and gas industry will continue to develop and fill the coffers of the Petroleum Fund, but what will be done with this money? I do not think many jobs will be created solely by oil/gas, so where will the (election-platforms') promised jobs come from? How much social and infrastructure spending will be enough, and where should it be cut off to maintain the Petroleum Fund? And really, who will be in this new coalition, and how well will it even function?

These may be difficult questions to answer right now, but Timorese should take pride in this opportunity to answer them! It means they have moved out of an era of political intimidation and violence (at least in part a hangover from the occupation period), and can now focus on an era of legitimate political and economic debates and decisions. Congratulations on the conduct of the election, now let's get down to work!


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