Timorese Election Prep

We are one week from the Timorese parliamentary elections, in which 20+ parties are competing for 65 seats. If the election is peaceful and well-run (which it seems should be the case), the UN will remove the peacekeeping/UNMIT/UNPOL forces later this year. For some Western views on the election, here is the Economist with a good intorduction, and Foreign Policy is doing a series of posts on it this week (first one here). Many outsiders think the election will hinge on the voters' reaction to how the Petroleum Fund is being managed/ should be managed (such as the Economist). But as one ex-pat said to me recently, all that matters to the Timorese is what you (or your party) did in 2006 and 1999. This explains every party's reliance on resistance heroes. There are two main parties in the election, Fretilin (currently the main opposition, and the party that led much of the resistance) and CNRT (currently in power and led by charismatic former resistance leader Xanana Gusmao). All parties are appealing to voters with resistance symbolism and economic promises (with Fretilin especially blaming CNRT for corruption):

I think Fretilin is saying "Vote for Fretilin to rescue the Timorese people and money from corruption... Grab hold of our investment lifeline" 

That's PD with former President (and Nobel Peace Prize winner) Ramos-Horta, with a destroyed building courtesy of the Indonesian army in the background (everything is "framed" in relation to the independence struggle)

Here is Gusmao's balloon campaign (just like his billboards, he is dressed in his military uniform...)

To me, the real issue remains the unemployed youth. The post-independence "baby boom" has led to a Timorese population heavily skewed towards younger people. There are little employment opportunities (skilled or unskilled), and as a result many are hanging around waiting for...something. The passion they display at the political rallies is akin to that of youth at a football (soccer) match. In fact, I saw Portugal supporters parading around the street one evening with banners and flags for the Euro2012 match, and it seemed exactly the same as the political rallies (but with different banners/flags). So far, the passion seems innocent enough, but a strong/willful leader could channel that passion into anger (at economic struggles) and aggression. I still think it will remain peaceful, but the sheer number of youth supporters that arrive at some events are staggering enough to give pause.

Fretilin again, this time proclaiming "I am the Timorese youth" and their phrase of "United We Can!"

Timorese youth piled into one (of many) trucks during a political party parade/rally (a daily occurence)